50 is a coin flip. Higher means a creator's past calls beat chance on the assets and periods they were made in; lower means they did worse.
A high score does not predict the next call. We tested whether it does, and it does not. We publish the ranking because the record should exist and be checkable. Our scoring is not financial advice and the method behind it is not published.
crispy — edges luck. Provisional — too few graded calls to mean much. This does not predict their next call. We tested whether it does and it does not. Our scoring is not financial advice.
Most coveredUS Treasury yields / American borrowing costs 1 →Japanese Yen 1 →Silver 1 →
Japan selling US Treasuries to defend the yen will push US borrowing costs (yields) higher as the architecture keeping them low cracks.
The yen continues to weaken/collapse as every intervention fails and the doom loop forces further deterioration.
Silver faces a short squeeze amid a sixth straight year of global supply deficit
Global bond selloff is a structural repricing, not temporary — yields will keep rising (bond prices falling) via the 'Compounding Ratchet'.
With the Strait of Hormuz closed and US strategic depletion, gasoline/oil prices are at record seasonal highs and will keep rising.
With the Buffett Indicator at a record 237% and record private credit defaults, the market is set up for a crash.
The selloff was deleveraging, not thesis death — the bottom is closer than you think and the AI trade recovers.
Nvidia is part of the 'Ouroboros Engine' circular financing loop whose apparent growth is illusory and whose profits are overstated 20-30% by depreciation accounting.
America's 'exorbitant privilege' is eroding and central banks are diversifying away from the dollar, implying continued dollar decline.
Central banks are quietly accumulating gold reserves as the dollar transition proceeds.
Tesla, a Musk-linked stock, took some of the worst hits of the year and the damage is structural.
Microsoft is caught in the Circularity Trap and faces structural decline.
Amazon is caught in the Circularity Trap and faces structural decline.
Meta is caught in the Circularity Trap and faces structural decline.
Oracle is caught in the Circularity Trap and faces structural decline.
AI hyperscalers including Alphabet are caught in the Circularity Trap and face structural, not cyclical, decline.
Brent crude is above $91 a barrel and would be at $65 if the Strait of Hormuz were functioning; the dual chokepoint strategy (Hormuz + Bab el-Mandeb) keeps oil prices elevated and the war self-reinforcing.
The Federal Reserve may be unable to cut interest rates due to war-driven inflation over the next 6-12 months.
