The 2026 Housing Market Refuses to Break (July Pulse Check)
Commercial real estate could be set up for a 10-year bull run.
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Most coveredU.S. home prices 6 →U.S. 30-year mortgage rates 5 →U.S. commercial real estate 2 →
Commercial real estate could be set up for a 10-year bull run.
A U.S.-Iran peace deal could bring mortgage rates back down to the 6% or sub-6% range.
Home prices may have hit their floor/bottom, with demand for home purchases rising.
Energy costs could spike and oil reserves run dry within the next 1-2 months as supply chain shocks from the War in Iran and Strait of Hormuz disruption hit.
Mortgage rates could spiral upwards as the national debt surpasses GDP.
A catalyst for risk could push housing demand down even further, increasing risk for weak markets.
A private credit crisis could push real estate prices lower.
Oil is shooting up in price due to the war in Iran.
The Iran war and rising oil prices could push mortgage rates higher, reversing recent rate relief.
Guest argues the wave of ~75,000 relistings will not crash prices and should instead give transactions a modest boost.
Population decline (deaths outpacing births by 2031) is framed as an unstoppable existential threat to home prices and housing demand.
Mortgage rates are asserted to continue declining into the five-percent range through 2026.
Gold prices to the moon.
U.S. housing prices are projected to rise roughly 23.5% over the next 10 years.
A national housing correction is underway and could last years, with real (inflation-adjusted) home prices declining.
A softening labor market raises the odds of Fed cuts, so mortgage rates should ease modestly.