12 Charts Analysis Before the Biggest Week of August | SPX NDX Gold Oil BTC
Gold is in a hedge-demand rally, up five straight weeks and heading into a sixth weekly gain.
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Most coveredGold 3 →Bitcoin 3 →S&P 500 2 →
Gold is in a hedge-demand rally, up five straight weeks and heading into a sixth weekly gain.
Creator argues Burry's vol-targeting crash mechanism 'isn't loaded yet' — 20-day realised vol at 14.1% means vol-targeting funds are at 0.85x leverage, not the 1.5x-2.0x that makes a 1987-style collapse possible, implying no imminent crash.
The Fed under Chair Kevin Warsh is leaning toward a rate HIKE, with a hawkish June dot plot median of 3.8% implying a hike — which the creator frames as a policy error into a weakening labor market.
Crypto is leaking — Bitcoin is bleeding lower into the week ahead.
Oil is soft heading into the week ahead.
Tech is rolling over — the Nasdaq/QQQ is breaking down while the broad index holds, a rotation out of tech into the week ahead.
Bullish structure is forming in BTC/crypto.
SPY is showing ATH rejection signals and is set for a 10%+ correction under the dollar-strength scenario.
The DXY has broken out above 100 to its highest level since May 2025 on a hawkish Fed signal, and the creator treats this dollar breakout as real and continuing.
A strengthening dollar creates serious headwinds for gold.
The dollar is in a structural (not collapse) decline as its reserve share falls and de-dollarization continues.
A sub-18 VIX at market highs historically signals volatility is set to rise.
BTC is collapsing and the breakdown is playing out.
QQQ is breaking down with key levels broken.
The S&P 500 near record highs at 22x forward earnings is mispricing macro risk, and the divergence with gold resolves against stocks.
Yields keep rising (30Y at 5.2%, a 1994-style bond massacre parallel and sovereign debt spiral), meaning Treasury bond prices fall.
In the portfolio triage for a rising-yield regime, gold is favored.