Gold, EURUSD & WTI: The US Dollar Is Trapped at a CRITICAL Level | Weekly SMC Outlook
EURUSD remains bullish in the short term with higher highs and higher lows (though cautious given bearish larger structure)
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Most coveredEUR/USD 15 →US Dollar Index 14 →Gold 10 →
EURUSD remains bullish in the short term with higher highs and higher lows (though cautious given bearish larger structure)
Short term the US dollar looks slightly bearish, holding below the major 100 resistance
Gold is pulling back sharply as the dollar strengthens, with the yearly open near 4,330 at risk
The pound remains in an uptrend with 1.37 the next test if it continues higher.
EURUSD is running into major resistance at 1.1700-1.1750, and the rally is likely to run into trouble with a pullback toward 1.1620.
DXY swept 98.50 and broke structure to the upside; a short-term reversal higher toward the overhead imbalance is possible.
Silver has produced a structural breakout and is already breaking higher.
WTI crude oil is approaching a potentially important breakout higher.
Gold remains constructive and showing early signs of a breakout, though a pullback into inefficiencies may come first.
EURUSD is about to explode higher after breaking above the descending channel, with 1.1540 then 1.1622 as targets.
DXY closing back below 100.1 is a bearish development; support at 99.38 then below 98.77 is in focus and the recent high may be a top.
The US 30-year yield is testing a major breakout that could produce its highest weekly close since July 2007.
Bitcoin is pointed toward $61K.
Silver's broader downtrend remains intact after a bearish break of structure.
Gold remains in a broader downtrend with lower highs and lower lows intact.
The Nasdaq flashed a dangerous diamond-top reversal signal that could turn into a much bigger reversal.
AUDUSD internal structure leans bearish with continuation toward recent lows expected.
GBPUSD has bearish structure on the four-hour chart, though less clean than EURUSD.
DXY is bullish after its strongest monthly candle in over a year; looking for longs on a pullback to ~100.4 support.
EURUSD is setting up for an ideal July short from this key area.
WTI is approaching a level for a potential long, though not ready yet.
USDCHF is breaking above a trend line dating back to August of last year.
The S&P 500 top is likely in following the change of character.
Silver closed below its 2026 yearly open and is testing it; similar bearish setup to gold with 71-72 a major decision point.
Nasdaq could still have one more move higher into a key area before shorts are considered.
Still short BTC from just above 80K and believes the downmove isn't done, targeting the unmitigated daily inefficiency between 49K and 44K.
After the relief rally into 30k, he is watching for shorts — expects a subsequent move lower.
"Nasdaq relief first toward 30k" — expects a near-term move higher toward 30,000.
Bitcoin has bounced hard off the lows; expects more relief up toward the 65,700–66K zone before shorts are considered.
Wants price to first rally up and tag the inefficiency near 4,400 before shorting.
Gold is in a daily downtrend with lower highs and lower lows since January; buying here is a trap and he is looking for shorts, with unmitigated imbalances at 4400 and 4160 as downside draws and 4595 as the bearish invalidation.
Short term he is watching 100.4 to 100.5 as an area where sellers could defend the dollar next week.
GBPUSD had a bearish change of character on May 14th and closed below the external low at 1.3375 on the hourly, which could mean the top is in for cable.
He is looking for EURUSD shorts once price moves up into premium above 1.1685, ideally before June 4th.
He remains longer-term bullish DXY on the daily chart, possibly after a move down to 98.15 to form a higher low.
Yields are starting to push into multi-decade resistance.
He is bearish the S&P 500 after a blow-off top and the first 1-hour BOS/change of character of the uptrend, with unmitigated price down toward 6,600 as the target.
He is bearish Bitcoin on a bear flag with a weekly bearish change of character, targeting $44k.
Silver has broken character to the downside on the 4-hour chart.
DXY has a valid bullish change of character on the daily after bouncing off the gap highlighted in the weekly outlook.
Gold's rally looks like mitigation of past imbalance and is setting up for a major breakdown if price rejects the key auction zone and gives a change of character below.
EURUSD flashed a bearish daily change of character for the first time since 2024 and the 1.18 area matters for a potential reversal lower.
GBPUSD is setting up for a short at the imbalance above, with the OTE zone around 1.33 as his first target.
AUDUSD flipped bearish on the 1-hour change of character with a downside target near the 0.6750 sell-side imbalance.
EURUSD printed its first daily change of character since the 2024 downtrend; creator is looking for shorts at premium.
The apparent DXY breakdown is probably a trap; the low is a weak reference point and calling a dollar top is premature.
S&P 500 is breaking down with bearish structure of lower highs and lower lows; the 6800-6820 imbalance/OTE region is where sellers step back in for downside continuation.
GBPUSD looks bullish but creator expects short opportunities once price pushes into premium above the 50% level and confirms a lower-timeframe change of character.
EURUSD to see further relief higher into 1.1660 and then 1.1760 after tapping major higher-timeframe support; shorts down here are off the table.
As long as 118.34 holds, EURJPY stays technically bearish and the downtrend remains intact.
S&P 500 setup: 1-hour broke recent lows with displacement; short on retrace into premium/OTE and a 15-minute BOS/CHoCH.
EURUSD structure remains bearish — monthly downtrend, price in premium/OTE at top of distribution channel with sell-side imbalances below toward 1.1600–1.1650.
The dollar has displaced higher and holds short-term structure; a sustained move above 97.54 confirms another bullish BOS on DXY.
Not bullish on EURUSD — clear downtrend; watching to short the imbalance/order block area if price trades back into it next week.
DXY bullish bias holds as long as there is no acceptance below the critical area going into next week.
Bullish structure on higher timeframes; not bearish yet, watching a pullback into OTE/imbalance for a clean buying opportunity.
The DXY move is still corrective and sellers stay in control unless price accepts above a key level.
Gold bulls remain in control; watching a key area before considering a buy.
If the dollar tags the September FVG and holds above 98.60, bulls remain in control.
EURUSD remains capped by 1.1600.
EURUSD closed above key support; looking for pullbacks into the 1.1540s before a push into the September low.
Gold may now be trapping bears — this is the buy setup I'm watching.
GBPUSD broke below range lows; watching one specific zone for a potential reversal (bounce).
Gold fakeout above 4,000 and pullback risks.
Gold is still buy on pullbacks while the channel holds.
DXY hovering on 97.70 support; a daily close below 97.70 opens downside
Dollar strength opens fresh shorts on GBPUSD
GBPUSD reclaimed 1.3380 on Friday, signaling a potential bounce early next week
USDJPY could be gearing up for a 400-pip run with a retest of channel resistance
DXY bounced and is testing whether buyers can clear 97.70 next week
EURUSD reversed from 1.1900 resistance and focus shifts down to 1.1730 for the next opportunity
EURUSD is breaking out above 1.1810, though bulls face hidden resistance and the FOMC test