Panic as Bond Market Crisis Causes Bond Prices to Crumble. Gold Soars. Bitcoin up 22% | Jiang Xueqin
Bitcoin jumped more than 22% in a single week amid the bond market stress.
50 is a coin flip. Higher means a creator's past calls beat chance on the assets and periods they were made in; lower means they did worse.
A high score does not predict the next call. We tested whether it does, and it does not. We publish the ranking because the record should exist and be checkable. Our scoring is not financial advice and the method behind it is not published.
yucky — well below luck. Provisional — too few graded calls to mean much. This does not predict their next call. We tested whether it does and it does not. Our scoring is not financial advice.
Most coveredBitcoin 1 →US Treasury bonds (long end) / 30-year Treasury prices 1 →US rents (national, 2028) 1 →
Bitcoin jumped more than 22% in a single week amid the bond market stress.
The bond market is in crisis with bond prices crumbling as 30-year yields hit the highest level since 2007.
The 'Overshoot Ratchet' means today's oversupply becomes a housing shortage, pushing rents higher by 2028.
San Francisco rents are surging as demand returns.
Sun Belt city rents are falling as new apartment supply pushes vacancies higher and forces landlord concessions.
Vehicle demand is weakening while dealership inventories build.
Tesla has experienced some of its sharpest declines of the year as the AI/valuation cycle turns.
Microsoft is among hyperscalers losing market value as the AI capital cycle reverses.
Amazon is among hyperscalers losing market value as the AI capital cycle reverses.
Meta is among hyperscalers losing market value as the AI capital cycle reverses.
Oracle is among hyperscalers losing market value as the AI capital cycle reverses.
Alphabet is among hyperscalers losing market value as the AI capital cycle reverses.
The AI 'Circularity Trap' is reversing, so AI hyperscaler valuations will continue to decline.
What is coming is far worse than an ordinary recession.
Investors turn toward gold during periods of instability, favoring gold as a wealth-protection asset.
The yen intervention signals a structural trap that weakens the US dollar.
Coordinated US-Japan intervention buying yen implies the yen strengthens.